Influência Metodológica na Desindustrialização Brasileira e Correções na Composição Setorial do PIB

Paulo Morceiro ()

No 2-2019, TD NEREUS from Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS)

Abstract: Users of Brazilian National Accounts, of the second half of the twentieth century, often incorrectly calculate sectoral participation in GDP. This inadequate calculation overestimates the sectoral share because the financial dummy doesn't be eliminated from the sectoral GDP. This affects the level, peak and format of the long-term sectoral participation series, thus, it has implications for the de-industrialization debate. Methodological changes also caused serial discontinuities between 1989 and 1990 and between 1990 and 1995. A method was created to eliminate the problem of the financial dummy and methodological changes, in this way, this study shows corrected series of GDP sectoral composition from 1947 to 2017 compatible with the IBGE's current methodology. Corrected series are more consistent with economic cycles and allow a better understanding of the Brazilian deindustrialization. This study also presents new and more extensive official series of the manufacturing sector's share in GDP in the same methodology that allow a better understanding of the Brazilian deindustrialization in the period before and after the trade opening, period of difficult interpretation due to the methodological changes.

Keywords: structural change; deindustrialization; national accounts; methodological changes; financial dummy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 L16 O14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:nereus:2019_002

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