Analysis of Factors Affecting the Dynamics of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate

Анализ факторов динамики реального валютного курса рубля

Pavel Trunin and Alexandra Bozhechkova

Published Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The aim of this work is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the influence of factors on the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Firstly, the basic theoretical and empirical models of the real exchange rate are studied, key factors of its short- and long-term changes are identified, including differential productivity, terms of trade, net foreign assets, government investment, import tariffs, etc. Second, the analysis of the main trends of macroeconomic indicators that impact on the formation of the real exchange rate in the pre- and post-crisis periods is made. The reasons for differences in the appreciation of the real exchange rates of a number of commodity-exporting countries in the 2000s. Thirdly, on the basis of the a-vector autoregression model the long-term-elastic stey real effective exchange rate on such fundamental factors as labor productivity differential, the real price of oil, the net outflow of private capital, the share of government spending in GDP for the period 1 sq. 1999 - 1Q. 2014, are evaluated. The above analysis of variance showed that more than 60% of the variance of the real effective exchange rate is explained by innovations in the real price of oil and differential productivity. Fourth, as a result of the construction of the pulse response functions were significant impact shocks fundamental factors on the dynamics of the real exchange rate shown.

Keywords: real exchange rate; macroeconomic indicators; changes; labor productivity differential; terms of trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 88 pages
Date: 2015-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-mac
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