 Conceptual Bases of Effective Use of the Integration Potential of the CISКонцептуальные основы эффективного использования интеграционного потенциала стран-членов СНГUlyukaev, Sergey (Улюкаев, Сергей) () and
Sheryay, K. I. (Шеряй, К. И.) ()
Published Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Abstract: Under the current Russian Foreign Policy Concept «the task of forming a Eurasian Economic Union, designed to not only maximize the use of mutually beneficial economic relations within the CIS, but also to become a defining model for the future of the Commonwealth states» is a priority for Russia. The reflections of the stated role of the regional economic integration are observed in recent years in the form ofRussia’snumerous attempts to strengthen cooperation between the CIS countries and, above all, with the countries most open to those attempts, such as Belarus and Kazakhstan. The result of those actions is the creation of the Customs Union and Common Economic Space (CES) of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Russia is actively trying to engage Ukraine in these processes and there are objective economic grounds for that (for example, Ukraine is a major recipient of Russian direct investment in CIS). Long-term effects (up to 2030) of the «quartet»’s (consisting of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan andUkraine) integration are expressed as annual average GDP growth rates’ addition from 2% for Russia up to 14% for Belarus. Moreover a qualitative leap into the change of the GDP’s structure could also be achieved as a result of the integration. For the «quartet» in general the share of mining sector in the GDP is expected to decline and the share of value added by processingis expected to increase. The growth of competitiveness through the implementation of the accumulated integration potential and interstate technological cooperation is possible first of all in the following sectors: energy engineering, production of conventional weapons, rocket-space industry, aircraft and helicopter engineering, metallurgy, energy, nuclear industry, transport infrastructure and telecom. The future economic development of Russia and other CES countries and Ukraine is impossible without modernization of existing and launching new high-tech industries. In this regard, technological cooperation on the basis of Soviet relationship, but with application of the new market principles is coming to the forefront. Unified banking system and a unified Eurasian currency is planned to be developed on the base of the Eurasian Economic Union in which CES is going to be transformed. While the transition to a unified regional currency is a matter of the distant future, which requires considerable study, an important task of today is the «quartet»’s financial integration, i.e. through the creation of large regional financial institutions, banks, currency and stock exchanges. Unified monetary and fiscal policy is also an important component of financial integration. The Agreement on coordinated macroeconomic policy provides the CES member countries with quantitative macroeconomic parameters, including the limit of the annual budget deficit no higher than 3 % of GDP and public debt not exceeding 50 % of GDP and the inflation rate no more than 5% above the inflation of a CES state with the smallest prices increase. One of the most important preconditions for the «quartet»’s financial integrationis the increase of ruble’s role as a settlement currency in the region. In 2012 payments in Russianrubles prevailed in the EurAsEC region both in number and in volume: 79.0 and 55.4%, respectively. It is noteworthy that ruble is used as the settlement currency between the countries of the region besides the Russian Federation. The use of ruble as a regional currency is of great importance for the creation of regional and further international financial center in Russia. If CES countries and Ukraine don’t form a regional financial center in the near future, the countries of the region will remain the global financial peripherals, dependent on foreign capital, subject to undue influence of global economic processes, will continue to be weak, have illiquid currency and on the whole the problems of economic integration and a successful transition to investment-based growth model will not be executed. Keywords: Russian Foreign Policy; Eurasian Economic Union; integration; CIS; Belarus; Kazakhstan; Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:ppaper:om20 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Published Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC. |
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