Increase in Retirement Age: Positive Effects and Likely Risks

Повышение пенсионного возраста: позитивные эффекты и вероятные риски

Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий) (), Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор) () and Tatyana Maleva
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Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Lyashok, Victor (Ляшок, Виктор): Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The paper substantiates the need for reforming the pension system in Russia, in terms of raising the retirement age, highlights the positive consequences of such a reform, analyzes potential risks, examines their prevention measures, and cites counter-arguments to the most common objections. It is shown that as a result of demographic processes, the growth of informal employment, the decrease in the length of average length of service, the number of donors decreases with the number of recipients of the pension system. In these circumstances, maintaining the level of pensions will require significant additional costs that will fall on the national economy and the state budget. Raising the retirement age as one of the measures to optimize the pension system is aimed not only at maintaining an acceptable level of pensions, preventing the growth of budget transfers and increasing the burden on business and the population. The reform will improve the situation on the labor market and will contribute to the processes of active longevity. It is shown that the main arguments against raising the retirement age are for the most part not fully justified. A number of scenarios for raising the retirement age are examined in the work, the choice of the most rational from the economic and socio-demographic points of view is justified: up to 63 years for men, up to 60 years for women with a rate of 3 months per year in the first four years of reform, then for 6 months in year. The paper identifies the main tasks that must be solved in preparation for raising the retirement age in order to carry out such a socially and economically significant reform as efficiently as possible.

Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2018-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cis and nep-tra
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