Analysis of the demographic heterogeneity of the regions of Russia

Анализ демографической неоднородности регионов России

Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей) () and Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) ()
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Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: In this paper, a multi-region demographic forecast of Russia until 2050 is built and analyzed. In the baseline scenario in 2050, the population of Russia is 145,970 thousand (a decrease of 0.2% from the 2018 level of 146,880 thousand). In the scenario with zero migration in 2050, the population is 139,714 thousand (a decrease of 4.9%). For Russia, the indicator of human life is estimated at 67.7 years in 2017 (61st place in the world). The paper estimates the threshold of old age in Russia for women was 69 years and 62.6 years for men. The median age increases from 39.2 years in 2018 to 46.4 years in 2050, while the promising (taking into account increased life expectancy) median age in 2050 is 34.7 years.

Keywords: demography; demographic projection; indicator of human life; life expectancy; old age threshold; gender and age structure of the population; regional differentiation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 74 pages
Date: 2019-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-cis
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