Modeling the increase in the retirement age in the Russian economy using the global CGE-OLG model

Моделирование повышения пенсионного возраста в российские экономики с помощью глобальной CGE-OLG модели

Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) () and Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина) ()
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Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: This paper is aimed at modeling of the proposed rise in retirement age for Russian economy (from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women) in the setting of a global CGE-OLGE model that includes over 100 countries grouped into 17 regions. The model takes into account the relevant long run demographic forecasts made by the UN and the current budget structure for all the 17 regions/ the results suggest a weak effect of the rise in retirement age on the economic activity and a substantial positive effect on a long-term balance of the state budget.

Keywords: general equilibrium model; pension reform; retirement age (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2019-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cis, nep-cmp and nep-tra
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