Population forecasting and analysis of demographic heterogeneity of Russia

Демографическое прогнозирование и анализ демографической неоднородности России

Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) () and Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей) ()
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Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: In this work, we develop and test a methodology for constructing a probabilistic multi-regional demographic forecast of Russia until 2050. According to the forecast, by 2050 the median population will be 134.9 million people with a 90% confidence interval from 125.8 million to 147.4 million people. The median age increases from 39.4 years in 2019 to 44.3 years (41.7 - 47.8) in 2050, however, the promising median age (estimated by the base year 2018) grows to 39.8 (33, 7–43.8). Our estimates show that the optimistic scenarios of demographic development are the scenarios of the most optimistic 5-10% of the demographic trajectories that we analyze.

Keywords: demography; probabilistic demographic forecast; multi-regional demographic forecast; life expectancy; old age threshold; age and sex structure of the population; regional differentiation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 71 pages
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cis and nep-gen
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