Assessment of risks and benefits for the Russian economy from the conduct of various integration strategies in modern conditions

Оценка рисков и выгод для российской экономики от проведения различных интеграционных стратегий в современных условиях

Alexander Knobel, Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) () and Sedalischev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) ()
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Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Кузнецов, Дмитрий): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Sedalischev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: Assessment of risks and benefits for the Russian economy from various integration strategies in modern conditions To find the best ways for Russia to liberalize trade between EAEU and other countries of the world, taking into account the hostile actions of third parties (the sanctions confrontation with the EU and the USA, etc.), we used the GLOBE v1 computable general equilibrium model. We have limited ourselves to considering five integration sites, the formation of which, in our opinion, is most likely due to the current state of their negotiation progress: TPP without the USA, SCO, ASEAN, RCEP and TTIP. It was assumed that with each of these sites the EAEU may or may not create an FTA, which led us to consider 243 different scenarios. As shown by the calculations, the inaction of the EAEU has, as a rule, a weak positive effect on the countries of the EAEU both at the level of industries and at the level of the economy as a whole. At the same time, the participation of the EAEU countries in the integration processes can give noticeable gains in terms of GDP (up to 1.2% from Russia) and trade. Nevertheless, participation in these processes creates noticeable industry risks (decline in output to 1.9%) in some sectors.

Pages: 115 pages
Date: 2019-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int, nep-sea and nep-tra
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