Escalation of trade conflicts and their impact on international trade in goods

Эскалация торговых конфликтов и их воздействие на международную торговлю товарами

Aliev, Timur (Алиев, Тимур) (), Flegontova, Tatiana (Флегонтова, Татьяна) (), Ponomareva, Olga (Пономарева, Ольга) (), Proka, Ksenia (Прока, Ксения) () and Pyzhikov, Nikita (Пыжиков, Никита) ()
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Aliev, Timur (Алиев, Тимур): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Flegontova, Tatiana (Флегонтова, Татьяна): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Ponomareva, Olga (Пономарева, Ольга): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Proka, Ksenia (Прока, Ксения): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Pyzhikov, Nikita (Пыжиков, Никита): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: In this paper, the authors investigate the factors behind the emergence and escalation of trade conflicts since 2017. Both direct and indirect effects of the growth of protectionist measures caused by so-called "trade wars" are considered. The authors pay special attention to the problem of growing economic uncertainty associated, among other things, with a surge in protectionist sentiment. The authors provide a number of examples when rising economic uncertainty could, among other factors, influence companies' decision to move production from China. In an attempt to establish a causal relationship between economic uncertainty and international commodity flows, the gravity equation approach was used, with economic uncertainty introduced as one of the most interesting variables.

Pages: 59 pages
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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