Development of a methodology for medium-term forecasting of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the territorial context

Разработка методологии среднесрочного прогнозирования социально-экономического развития российской федерации в территориальном разрезе

Irina Grishina, Polynev, Andrey (Полынев, Андрей) (), Shkuropat, Anna (Шкуропат, Анна) () and Kotov, Alexander (Котов, Александр) ()
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Polynev, Andrey (Полынев, Андрей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Shkuropat, Anna (Шкуропат, Анна): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Kotov, Alexander (Котов, Александр): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: Development of a methodology for medium-term forecasting of socio-economic development in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account the forecast of the main macroeconomic parameters and territorial factors that determine the interregional differentiation of the socio-economic development of Russia. To achieve the above goal, the following tasks were solved: - the analysis of domestic and foreign experience in forecasting the socio-economic development of regions and methods of decomposition of predicted macroeconomic indicators at the regional level was carried out; - the analysis of the territorial proportions of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the retrospective period was carried out, the identification of the main factors of their formation and trends of change; - methodological approaches to forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the medium term have been developed using the version of forecasting macroeconomic indicators of the development of the Russian Federation; - formed the initial statistical base for forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2022; - options for a preliminary forecast of the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020 - 2024 have been developed.

Pages: 59 pages
Date: 2020-05
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