Modeling the Spatial Distribution of Russian Foreign Trade Flows, Taking into Account the Real Costs of Transport

Моделирование пространственного распределения российских внешнеторговых потоков с учетом реальных издержек транспортировки

Dmitry Gordeev, Georgy Idrisov, Vittoria Idrisova and Kaukin, Andrei (Каукин, Андрей) ()
Additional contact information
Kaukin, Andrei (Каукин, Андрей): Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: To date, one of the most used tools for the analysis of international trade is a gravity model of trade. A significant simplification of the model is the replacement cost of trade between the two countries on the distance between them, acting as a proxy variable. Thus, under the costs of foreign trade refers to not only transportation costs, but also the cost of doing this kind of activity as a whole. Administrative, informational, tax, adjustment costs, etc. However, in the academic literature is virtually no research on the analysis of trade flows, taking into account the calculated transportation costs on specific routes. Conducting such a study will fill a gap in the theory of gravitational models of trade, as well as provide an opportunity for more detailed empirical analysis of trade flows on selected routes. The aim is a theoretical modification empirical calibration of the spatial gravity model of trade based on the actual transport cost value of goods on certain routes, recommendations on updating the predictive model of Russia's foreign trade, the development of economic and trade policies, including those aimed at reducing the negative effects of external sanctions and downturn in the economy. To achieve this objective the work objectives: the analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis of foreign trade of goods transportation costs; analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis of the volume and routing trade flows, taking into account the transportation costs for the individual supply chains; modification of the spatial gravity model of trade of Russia to work with detailed trade flows and the cost of transportation of goods in the existing supply chain; empirical assessment of the modified model to the data of the Russian foreign trade in the years 2011-2014, to determine the degree by the amount of the cost of the transport component of the impact of trade flows and routing varying degrees of aggregation.

Keywords: spatial distribution; foreign trade; spatial gravity model of trade; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 88 pages
Date: 2016-06-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int, nep-tra and nep-tre
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/wpaper/764.pdf
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:wpaper:764

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RANEPA maintainer ().