ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA TO ENTER THE PATH OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AFTER 2021: ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT RISKS AND DEVELOPMENT OF PROPOSALS FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

ОЦЕНКА ПЕРСПЕКТИВ ВЫХОДА РОССИИ НА ТРАЕКТОРИЮ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РОСТА ПОСЛЕ 2021 ГОДА: АНАЛИЗ ВОЗМОЖНЫХ РИСКОВ РАЗВИТИЯ И ВЫРАБОТКА ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЙ ПО УПРАВЛЕНИЮ РИСКАМИ

Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей) (), Silchuk, Anastasia (Сильчук, Анастасия) (), Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин) (), Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина) () and Eremkin, Vladimir (Ерёмкин, Владимир) ()
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Vedev, Aleksey (Ведев, Алексей): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Silchuk, Anastasia (Сильчук, Анастасия): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Tuzov, Konstantin (Тузов, Константин): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Kovaleva, Marina (Ковалева, Марина): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Eremkin, Vladimir (Ерёмкин, Владимир): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the sharp changes in the sectors of the economy generated by the coronavirus pandemic have changed all existing development forecasts. At the same time, a number of new risks have emerged. In this regard, the development of a forecast for the development of economic sectors, taking into account risks and opportunities, seems to be the most important task for the Russian economy. The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for key parameters of the socio-economic development of Russia, assess the risks of the forecast and develop tools for responding to risk situations, develop a forecast for the development of the financial sector in the Russian Federation in the medium term The subject of the study is the dynamics of the economic development of the Russian Federation in the medium term. The method or methodology of the study is based on the study of key current and retrospective data on the state of the sectors of the economy of the Russian Federation, highlighting the most important risks and building a medium-term forecast. Main research methods: economic observation, economic modeling, construction of economic hypotheses, historical analysis of economic phenomena, formalization and mathematization method, logical interpretation method, axiomatization method, analogy method As a result of the work carried out, the key components of the public sector, financial and credit markets were analyzed, and an assessment was made of the impact of the worsening external environment. Thus, the paper presents estimates of the prerequisites for the forecast and develops three possible scenarios for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of unique forecasts for the development of sectors of the Russian economy. The recommendations received as a result of the study indicate the need to develop mechanisms for responding to certain risks, taking into account the possible consequences of such an impact, presented in the forecast.

Keywords: Macroeconomics; financial market; debt and equity financing; medium-term planning; fiscal system; recovery growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 E37 E47 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2022-11-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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