ANALYSIS OF PROMISING DIRECTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAEU INTEGRATION WITH CONSIDERING ITS EXISTING FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONS

АНАЛИЗ ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫХ НАПРАВЛЕНИЙ РАЗВИТИЯ ИНТЕГРАЦИИ ЕАЭС С УЧЁТОМ ЕГО СЛОЖИВШИХСЯ ВНЕШНЕТОРГОВЫХ СВЯЗЕЙ

Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) () and Eremin, Vladimir (Ерёмин, Владимир) ()
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Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Eremin, Vladimir (Ерёмин, Владимир): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: Over the past century, as one of the main trends in international trade, one should note the noticeable liberalization of trade throughout the world, this trend is still widely supported today in the activities of many economic associations, ranging from the activities of the WTO and the IMF to the activities of economic associations in within the framework of regional trade agreements, for example, the EAEU, the EU and others. Along with the trend towards globalization, there is a decrease in non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and services, and other obstacles to capital flows. The issue of countries taking part in integration processes is widely discussed and debatable, as the object of study is the economies of the EAEU countries, the EU and the economies of Russia's key trading partners. The purpose of the study is to assess the consequences (macroeconomic and sectoral) for the EAEU countries from the implementation by various countries of a number of provisions of agreements governing the functioning of potential integration associations that include the EAEU, and, based on the estimates obtained, to form a profile of foreign trade policy strategies for the EAEU countries, taking into account internal and external situations for choosing the optimal integration directions of the EAEU. The results of the study presented in this paper are as follows: Calculations based on data in the form of a global matrix of social accounts for 2019 showed that under any bilateral scenario of Russia's integration with the 16 listed on the EAEU site, Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve an increase of more than half a percent of GDP. At the same time, no significant industry risks are expected for it. As the country-by-country analysis of the games showed, with the simultaneous entry of several countries into the EAEU, there are no noticeable synergy effects and Russia's gains are approximately equal to the sum of the gains from agreements with each of the partners.

Keywords: global economy; trade policy; Russian Federation; foreign economic strategy; computable general equilibrium models; input-output tables; GTAP database; export restrictions; global social account matrices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2022-11-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-int
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