Autoregression model for the GDP of the Russian Federation, supplemented by the indicator of business activity of trading partner countries

Модель авторегрессии для ВВП РФ, дополненная показателем деловой активности стран торговых партнеров

Tadzhibaeva, Liana (Таджибаева, Лиана) ()
Additional contact information
Tadzhibaeva, Liana (Таджибаева, Лиана): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The model proposed in this paper is a modification of the second-order autoregressive process with the addition of an external variable that allows taking into account the cycles of trading partners to predict output. This model has shown a significant advantage in forecasting for the long-term horizon, which confirms the importance of taking into account the economic activity of partner countries when forecasting the GDP of the Russian Federation.

Keywords: GDP forecasting; business activity of trading partners; vector autoregressions; Bayesian methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12 pages
Date: 2023-03-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/wpaper/w20220233.pdf
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220233

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RANEPA maintainer ().