Import Price Reaction to the Ruble Exchange Rate and Leaving the Russian market by Foreign Suppliers

АНАЛИЗ РЕАКЦИИ ЦЕН ИМПОРТИРУЕМЫХ ТОВАРОВ НА КОЛЕБАНИЯ КУРСА РУБЛЯ И УХОД ЧАСТИ ЗАРУБЕЖНЫХ ПОСТАВЩИКОВ С РОССИЙСКОГО РЫНКА

Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр) ()
Additional contact information
Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр): The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Abstract: The aim of the work is an empirical analysis of the ruble exchange rate pass-through into prices under reorientation of imports to suppliers from neutral countries due to the withdrawal of some suppliers from the Russian market. The motivation is related to the structural transformation of Russian foreign trade and the continued volatility of the ruble exchange rate. I collected a database of Russian imports based on statistics of the main trading partners. The data shows three periods since February 2022: a drop of import flows from all countries in February-April 2022; a period of reorientation (increase) of imports from neutral countries in May – December; and following general stabilization of trade. The result of econometric analysis at commodity-group level consistent with the hypothesis of reorientation of imports: the average growth rates of import prices from "unfriendly" countries during the considered period significantly exceed the rate of price growth in the pre-crisis period. The difference is from 1.9 to 4.9 percentage points in a year basis. At the same time, there is no evidence in favor of the hypothesis of an increase in the growth rate of import prices from neutral countries during the crisis period. The main conclusion is that, by the end of 2022, the ruble exchange rate pass-through into import prices returned to the characteristic values of previous periods. This suggests that the current weakening of the ruble will affect import prices and lead to a reduction of imports volumes. The period of turbulence and reorientation of Russian imports has ended. Its result was a multiple drop in imports from "unfriendly" countries and a higher increase in the prices of imports from them.

Keywords: imports; prices; exchange rates; reorientation of imports; strategic competition; international trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 L23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2023-10-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-int
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/wpaper/w20220277.pdf
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220277

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by RANEPA maintainer ().