Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles

Yongsung Chang and Sunoong Hwang ()

No 564, RCER Working Papers from University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER)

Abstract: We identify the cyclical turning points of 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (i) Cyclical phase shifts are highly concentrated around the aggregate turning points; (ii) In contrast to the conventional notion of a sudden stop and slow recovery, troughs are much more concentrated than peaks; (iii) Occurrences of phase shifts across industries support the spillovers through input-output linkages; (iv) The common macroeconomic shocks, such as exogenous changes in the federal funds rate, government spending, and oil prices, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts; (v) Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks are more effective in recessions.

Keywords: Business cycles; Comovement; Turning points; Asymmetries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C33 C35 E23 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2011-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba and nep-hme
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles (2015)
Working Paper: Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:roc:rocher:564

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