USING GOOGLE TREND DATA TO PREDICT THE ITALIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Alessia Naccarato, Andrea Pierini and Stefano Falorsi

No 203, Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' from Department of Economics - University Roma Tre

Abstract: The increased availability of online information in recent years has aroused interest as to the possibility of deriving indications on phenomena under studies. In the more specifically economic and statistical context, numerous studies suggest the use of online search data to improve the nowcasting and forecasting of the official economic indicators with a view to increasing the promptness of their circulation. In the same way, this paper puts forward a model for multiple time series that harnesses cointegration of the official time series of the Italian unemployment rate and the series of the Google Trend job offers query share to nowcast the monthly unemployment rate. Nowcasting is to be understood here as estimating the monthly unemployment rate for the month in which official survey is actually under way. The aim is thus to assess whether the use of Internet search data can improve the nowcasting of the economic indicator considered.

Keywords: multivariate time series analysis; preliminary estimates; online search data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22
Date: 2015-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dipeco.uniroma3.it/db/docs/WP%20203.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0203

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' from Department of Economics - University Roma Tre Via Silvio d'Amico 77, - 00145 Rome Italy. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Telephone for information ().