The future of Long Term Care in Europe. An investigation using a dynamic microsimulation model

Vincenzo Atella, Federico Belotti, Ludovico Carrino and Andrea Piano Mortari

No 405, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the evolution of public European LTC systems in the forthcoming decades, using the Europe Future Elderly Model (EuFEM), a dynamic microsimulation model which projects the health and socio-economic characteristics of the 50+ population of ten European countries, augmented with the explicit modelling of the eligibility rules of 5 countries. The use of SHARE data allows to have a better understanding of the trends in the demand for LTC differentiated by age groups, gender, and other demographic and social characteristics in order to better assess the distributional effects. We estimate the future potential coverage (or gap of coverage) of each national/regional public home-care system, and then disentangle the differences between countries in a population and a regulation effects. Our analysis offers new insights on how would the demand for LTC evolve over time, what would the distributional effects of different LTC policies be if no action is taken, and what could be potential impact of alternative care policies.

Keywords: Dynamic Microsimulation; Long Term Care; Forecast; disability; Regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C63 I11 I18 J11 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 65 pages
Date: 2017-05-08, Revised 2017-05-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cmp, nep-eur and nep-hea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ceistorvergata.it/RePEc/rpaper/RP405.pdf Main text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:405

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma
https://ceistorvergata.it

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS CEIS - Centre for Economic and International Studies - Faculty of Economics - University of Rome "Tor Vergata" - Via Columbia, 2 00133 Roma. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Barbara Piazzi ().