Forecasting Volatility with Time-Varying Leverage and Volatility of Volatility Effects

Leopoldo Catania (leopoldo.catania@econ.au.dk) and Tommaso Proietti
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Leopoldo Catania: Aarhus University and CREATES

No 450, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: The prediction of volatility is of primary importance for business applications in risk management, asset allocation and pricing of derivative instruments. This paper proposes a novel measurement model which takes into consideration the possibly time-varying interaction of realized volatility and asset returns, according to a bivariate model aiming at capturing the main stylised facts: (i) the long memory of the volatility process, (ii) the heavy-tailedness of the returns distribution, and (iii) the negative dependence of volatility and daily market returns. We assess the relevance of "volatility in volatility"and time-varying "leverage" effects in the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model, and evaluate the density forecasts of the future level of market volatility. The empirical results illustrate that our specification can outperform the benchmark HAR-RV, both in terms of point and density forecasts.

Keywords: realized volatility; forecasting; leverage effect; volatility in volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2019-02-06, Revised 2019-02-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-rmg
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects (2020)
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