The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA

Robert Waldmann ()

No 475, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.

Keywords: housing; bubble; e medium term forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
Date: 2019-11-29, Revised 2019-11-29
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
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