The Future of the Elderly Population Health Status: Filling a Knowledge Gap

Vincenzo Atella, Federico Belotti, Kim Daejung (), Dana Goldman, Tadeja Gracner (), Andrea Piano Mortari and Bryan Tysinger
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Kim Daejung: Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs
Tadeja Gracner: RAND Corporation

No 504, CEIS Research Paper from Tor Vergata University, CEIS

Abstract: The ageing process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model (FEM) family for thirteen OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable longterm trends in individual health status across OECD. The FEM is a multi-risk multi-morbidity dynamic microsimulation model to project health status and health demand. Given the dynamic structure of the model, we allow individual health status to evolve over time according to individual characteristics. Our model provides forecasts of the evolution of life expectancy and prevalences of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find a catch-up of the considered European countries main chronic conditions prevalence with the US and a relevant and persistent educational gradient in the health status of elderly patients. Our findings represent a valid contribution to support policy makers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.

Keywords: Population ageing; Disease burden; Microsimulation; Health care demand; Education gradient; OECD. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I1 J1 J11 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2020-12-22, Revised 2020-12-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-hea
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Journal Article: The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap (2021)
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