A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Additional contact information
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University
Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2011, vol. 28, issue 1, 65-87
Abstract:
A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms competing models in most tests despite the absence of variance on a critical variable in all but nine cases. The more proximate the political setting of the issues is to the new model’s underlying theory of competitive and potentially coercive politics, the better the new model does relative to other models tested in the European Union context.
Keywords: Bayesian updating; forecasting; game theory; prediction; policy engineering; policy analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)
Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894210388127 (text/html)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:65-87
DOI: 10.1177/0738894210388127
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Conflict Management and Peace Science from Peace Science Society (International)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications (sagediscovery@sagepub.com).