Changing horses in midstream: Leadership changes and the civil war peace process

Kirssa Cline Ryckman and Jessica Maves Braithwaite
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Kirssa Cline Ryckman: University of Arizona, USA
Jessica Maves Braithwaite: University of Arizona, USA

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2020, vol. 37, issue 1, 83-105

Abstract: We examine the impact of governmental leadership changes on the civil war peace process. In line with the literature on leadership changes and interstate war, we argue that transitions can help overcome lags in the rational updating process, leading to negotiations and termination through negotiated settlements. However, while studies of interstate relations emphasize the role of “outsider†changes that produce new winning coalitions, we argue that owing to the critical nature of credible commitment problems within the civil war peace process, only “insider†changes can generate the benefits of leadership change while mitigating uncertainty generated by leadership turnover. Using existing and original data on changes in governmental leadership, we find support for our expectations. Leadership changes can produce conditions favorable to negotiations and settlements, but only changes from inside the existing regime should be encouraged to avoid prolonging the conflict.

Keywords: Civil war; leadership transition; negotiations; peace process; settlements (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:37:y:2020:i:1:p:83-105

DOI: 10.1177/0738894217726762

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