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US–China commercial rivalry, great war and middle powers

Bora Jeong and Hoon Lee
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Bora Jeong: University of North Texas, USA
Hoon Lee: Texas Tech University, USA

International Area Studies Review, 2021, vol. 24, issue 2, 135-148

Abstract: This paper examines whether the recent trade war between the US and China would lead to a great power war. In so doing, we rely on two theoretical frameworks, mercantilism and power transition theory, that are likely to link trade war to a military confrontation. Evidence shows that the trade war per se is not a sufficient condition for an all-out war between the US and China. Unlike mercantilists argue, first, we identify the importance of domestic coalitions before trade war being escalated to a military conflict. Second, we find that trade war as economic statecraft is a viable means to suppress a challenger’s capability, which may stop or delay the power transition process. The findings provide implications for middle power countries where strategic choices are required between the two major powers.

Keywords: US–China trade war; mercantilism; power transition theory; US trade policy; middle power (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:intare:v:24:y:2021:i:2:p:135-148

DOI: 10.1177/22338659211018322

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