Nontransitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries

Jan C. van Ours

Journal of Sports Economics, 2024, vol. 25, issue 7, 802-826

Abstract: The phenomenon of nontransitivity in outcomes, typically observed in noneffort games with predetermined probabilities and immediate clarity, extends to team-based, time-consuming games requiring effort that unfold over a long period of time. This study explores this aspect through an empirical analysis of professional football matches in the Netherlands involving three prominent teams: Feyenoord, Ajax, and PSV. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results reveal a nontransitive pattern over more than three decades, indicating that Feyenoord is more likely to triumph over PSV, PSV over Ajax, and Ajax over Feyenoord than the reverse scenarios.

Keywords: Bradley-Terry; match outcomes; nontransitivity; professional football (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jospec:v:25:y:2024:i:7:p:802-826

DOI: 10.1177/15270025241264235

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