At a Glance... The UK economy

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National Institute Economic Review, 2000, vol. 173, issue 1, 2-2

Abstract: • The government's new plans for departmental spending are affordable, but the fiscal loosening does pose a threat to the outlook for inflation and interest rates. • Growth will pick up next year as export performance improves because of greater buoyancy in world trade and the fall in the exchange rate. • In order for inflation to stay on target in 200I, interest rates will have to rise by half a percentage point by the start of next year. • The upward pressure on interest rates will be limited by a decline in the growth of private sector spending as households increase their saving rate and non-manufacturing business investment increases less rapidly. • Inflationary pressures should also be restrained by a recovery in productivity growth.

Date: 2000
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