Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks

Koffi Dumor, Yao Li, Jean-Paul Ainam, Edem Koffi Amouzou and Williams Ayivi

SAGE Open, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 21582440211032662

Abstract: Recent research suggests that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) would improve the bilateral trade between China and its partners. This article uses detailed bilateral export data from 1990 to 2017 to investigate the impact of China’s BRI on its trade partners using neural network analysis techniques and structural gravity model estimations. Our main findings suggest that the BRI countries would raise exports by a modest 5.053%. This indicates that export and network upgrades should be considered from economic and policy perspectives. The results also show that neural networks is more robust compared with structural gravity framework.

Keywords: Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation; panel structural gravity estimation; neural networks; international trade; Belt and Road Initiative (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:sagope:v:11:y:2021:i:3:p:21582440211032662

DOI: 10.1177/21582440211032662

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