Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence using Hazard Regression Models

Arnab Bhattacharjee

No 502, CRIEFF Discussion Papers from Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm

Abstract: This Paper considers empirical work relating to models of firm dynamics. It is shown that a hazard regression model for firm exits, with a modification to accommodate age-varying covariate effects, provides an adequate framework accommodating many of the features of interest in empirical studies on firm dynamics. Modelling implications of some of the popular theoretical models are considered and a set of empirical procedures for verifying theoretical implications of the models are proposed.The proposed hazard regression models can accommodate negative effects of initial size that increase to zero with age (active learning model), negative initial size effects that may increase with age, but stay permanently negative (passive learning model), conditional and unconditional hazard rates that decrease with age at higher ages, and adverse effects of macroeconomic shocks that decrease with age of the firm.The methods are illustrated using data on quoted UK firms. Consistent with the active learning model, the effect of initial size is significantly negative for a young firm and falls to zero with age.The hazard function conditional on size, other firm and industry-level characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions decreases with age only at higher ages, but shows the weaker property of Increasing Mean Residual Life over its entire life-duration. Instability in exchange rates affects survival of very young firms strongly, and the effect decreases to insignificant levels for older firms.

Keywords: Firm exit; Learning; Firm Dynamics; Non-proportional hazards; Hazard regression models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C34 C41 C52 D83 L16 L25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ent and nep-fmk
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence using Hazard Regression Models (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:san:crieff:0502

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