Development of innovative satellite-based methods for improved PV yield prediction on different time scales for distribution grid level applications (MetPVNet)

Stefanie Meilinger, Anna Herman-Czezuch, Nicola Kimiaie, Christopher Schirrmeister, Rone Yousif, Stefan Geiss, Leonhard Scheck, Martin Weissmann, Felix Gödde, Bernhard Mayer, Tobias Zinner, James Barry, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Markus Kraiczy, Kevin Winter, Abdullah Altayara, Christian Reise, Mariella Rivera, Hartwig Deneke, Jonas Witthuhn, Jethro Betcke, Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Philipp Hofbauer and Bernhard Rindt

No 21/4, IZNE Working Paper Series from International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University of Applied Sciences

Abstract: In the research project "MetPVNet", both, the forecast-based operation management in distribution grids and as well as the forecasts of the feed-in of PV-power from decentralized plants could be improved on the basis of satellite data and numerical weather forecasts. Based on a detailed network analyses for a real medium-voltage grid area, it was shown that both – the integration of forecast data based on satellite and weather data and the improvement of subsequent day forecasts based on numerical weather models – have a significant added value for forecast-based congestion management or redispatch and reactive power management in the distribution grid. Furthermore, forecast improvements for the forecast model of the German Weather Service were achieved by assimilating visible satellite imagery, and cloud and radiation products from satellites were improved, thus improving the database for short-term forecasting as well as for assimilation. In addition, several methods have been developed that will enable forecast improvement in the future, especially for weather situations with high cloud induced variability and high forecast errors. This article summarizes the most important project results.

Keywords: Distribution grid management; photovoltaics; generation forecast; satellite products; numerical weather prediction; radiation; cloud parameters; reflectance; COD; AOD; radiation variability; spectral influence; Si reference cells; inversion; energy meteorology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q42 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2021-12-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sau:iznews:2104

DOI: 10.18418/978-3-96043-094-0

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