ADAPTIVE POLAR SAMPLING WITH AN APPLICATION TO A BAYES MEASURE OF VALUE-AT-RISK

Herman van Dijk, Luc Bauwens and Charles Bos

No 145, Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 from Society for Computational Economics

Abstract: Adaptive Polar Sampling (APS) is proposed as a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for Bayesian analysis of models with ill-behaved posterior distributions. In order to sample efficiently from such a distribution, a location-scale transformation and a transformation to polar coordinates are used. After the transformation to polar coordinates, a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is applied to sample directions and, conditionally on these, distances are generated by inverting the CDF. A sequential procedure is applied to update the location and scale.Tested on a set of canonical models that feature near non-identifiability, strong correlation, and bimodality, APS compares favourably with the standard Metropolis-Hastings sampler in terms of parsimony and robustness. APS is applied within a Bayesian analysis of aGARCH-mixture model which is used for the evaluation of the Value-at-Risk of the return of the Dow Jones stock index.

Date: 2000-07-05
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Working Paper: Adaptive polar sampling with an application to a Bayes measure of value-at-risk (1999)
Working Paper: Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk (1999)
Working Paper: Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk (1999)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sce:scecf0:145

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 from Society for Computational Economics CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().