A COMBINED APPROACH TO ACCESS SHORT TERM CHANGES IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN

João Veríssimo Lisboa, Mário Gomes Augusto and Juan Piñeiro-Chousa

Revista Galega de Economía, 2015, vol. 24, issue 2, 99-110

Abstract: This paper proposes a different method to identify short term changes in economic activity. We use an approach based on the opinions of several reputable Portuguese and Spanish economists about the importance of a set of individual indicators, which are generally agreed to provide an assessment of the economic activity. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relative economic position over a particular period of time in relation to a short/medium term time horizon and to analyze the importance of the opinion of the economist in the characterization of the economic activity. Trimestral data covering the period from 1995 to 2014 (1st semester) was collected using statistics provided by the OECD.StatExtracts for Portugal, and Spain were considered. The results support the idea that the opinions of the economists are important for the characterization of an economy. Although their opinions about the weight of a particular variable in characterization of the level of the economic activity may vary, implicitly, in the long term, all the opinions tend to converge to the same pattern of an economic activity evolution.

Keywords: economic activity; composite indicator; experimental analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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