Is a bubble inflating on Poland’s housing market?

Adam Czerniak and Stefan Kawalec

No 164, mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings from CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research

Abstract: The year 2019 brought double-digit growth in Polish housing prices, for both new and existing homes. In some cities, real prices for residential real estate have reached the highest levels in history, even higher than at the peak of the boom in 2008. As a result, some are saying that there is a growing price bubble. But thus far no research has been produced that would comprehensively verify this hypothesis on the basis of data from 2006-2019. This work aims to fill that gap. This is exceptionally important, because assessing the likelihood that a housing price bubble is emerging is key for the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy in Poland. Because if we’re really dealing with growth in macroeconomic imbalances, then taking pre-emptive action to limit further price growth and prepare the economy (including the financial sector) for a potential collapse in housing prices is essential for limiting fluctuations in growth.

Keywords: real estate market; price bubble; flipping; housing investments; crowdfunding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R31 R32 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2020-03-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tra and nep-ure
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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