Testing Policies During an Epidemic

Francesco Flaviano Russo ()
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Francesco Flaviano Russo: Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF, https://csef.it/people/francesco-flaviano-russo/

CSEF Working Papers from Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy

Abstract: I simulate a stochastic SIR-Macro model to study the effects of different testing policies to isolate and quarantine the infectious during an epidemic. I show that contact tracing performs better than random screenings, and than tests on a voluntary basis, only conditionally on having enough capacity to frequently process a large number of tests. Since the testing capacity is difficult to build in the short run through investments, I study the effects of two alternatives: group testing and the use of less sensitive tests. Both strategies, when combined with contact tracing, can significantly smooth the peak of the epidemic, ease the pressure on hospitals, decrease mortality and reduce the overall output loss. I also show that the gains are higher in case of an endogenous reduction of social activities in response to the epidemic.

Keywords: Group-Testing; Tracing; Infection. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 H12 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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