The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market

Emilie Ja?ová ()
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Emilie Ja?ová: University of Economics in Prague

No 5307026, Proceedings of International Academic Conferences from International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences

Abstract: The paper focuses on mapping the uncertainties in real economy. It develops a Central European parallel to the VIX fear and uncertainty index in condition of Hungary and Poland. It extends the number of representatives of the demand shock in the standard Gordon?s Triangle model with the index of uncertainty perception among companies. The Kalman filter will be used for estimating the value of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and economic cycle without and with the effect of the psychological factor among companies. We verify results with the corresponding real economy data. Five scenarios will describe the relationship between the uncertainty perception among companies and the unemployment rate. The analysis quantifies the intensity of the effect of the psychological factor on the supply side on the labour market in Hungary and Poland. It will outline the consequences for the economic policymakers too.

Keywords: Index of uncertainty perception among companies; Phillips Curve; NAIRU; Kalman filter; Unemployment gap. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2016-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Published in Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 26th and the 27th International Academic Conference (Istanbul, Prague), Nov 2016, pages 45-55

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iacpro:5307026

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