A Model for Estimation of NAIRU Extended by Demand Shocks and its Application to Business Cycle Analysis in the Labour Market in Hungary and Poland

Emilie Jasova ()
Additional contact information
Emilie Jasova: University of Economics

No 401788, Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences from International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences

Abstract: Article seeks to extend the Standard Gordon's " Triangle " model with demand shocks. The demand shocks are represented by a newly derived Current discount indicator (CDI). The recession on the labour market in Hungary and Poland was influenced by the growth of future consumption preferences of consumers. Negative gaps of unemployment increased during the recession only in Hungary. Short period subsequent boom in Hungary is linked with excessive pessimism of consumers what reduced unemployment positive gap and shortened the period with positive gape. In Poland the negative vision of future development in the economy resulted in shortening the period of boom. Policymakers should create more positive expectations and prevent to transfer negative emotions on the labour market.

Keywords: Unemployment gap; psychological factor; Kalman Filter; Phillips Curve; NAIRU (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2014-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 2nd Economics & Finance Conference, Vienna, Jul 2014, pages 363-377

Downloads: (external link)
https://iises.net/proceedings/2nd-economics-financ ... id=4&iid=16&rid=1788 First version, 2014

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iefpro:0401788

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences from International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klara Cermakova ().