Do High Speed Railways Lead to Urban Economic Growth in China?

Jack Strauss ()
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Jack Strauss: University of Denver

No 4807677, Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences from International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of high-speed railroads (HSR) on city-level economic activity using a new dataset for approximately 200 cities in China from 2007-2014. We apply panel Granger causality methods to assess whether increases in a city?s accessibility increases GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and wage growth. Or does causality run the opposite way ? does rising economic growth boost accessibility? Results document that increases in accessibility lead to significant and relatively large increases in GDP growth on the city-level; further, the benefits substantially out-weigh HSR?s fixed costs, depreciation and subsidies. Out-of-sample methods document the importance of increases in HSR in forecasting GDP growth. Monte Carlo simulations document the usefulness of OLS and out-of-sample tests in assessing panel Granger Causality tests.

Keywords: China Infrastructure; Granger Causality; High Speed Railroads (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2017-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-tra and nep-ure
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Published in Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 8th Economics & Finance Conference, London, Jul 2017, pages 167-199

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iefpro:4807677

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