Estimating the membership function of the fuzzy willingness-to-pay/accept for health via Bayesian modelling

Michał Jakubczyk

No 2016-011, KAE Working Papers from Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis

Abstract: Determining how to trade off individual criteria is often not obvious, especially when attributes of very different nature are juxtaposed, e.g. health and money. The difficulty stems both from the lack of adequate market experience and strong ethical component when valuing some goods, resulting in inherently imprecise preferences. Fuzzy sets can be used to model willingness-to-pay/accept (WTP/WTA), so as to quantify this imprecision and support the decision making process. The preferences need then to be estimated based on available data. In the paper I show how to estimate the membership function of fuzzy WTP/WTA, when decision makers’ preferences are collected via survey with Likert-based questions. I apply the proposed methodology to an exemplary data set on WTP/WTA for health. The mathematical model contains two elements: the parametric representation of the membership function and the mathematical model how it is translated into Likert options. The model parameters are estimated in a Bayesian approach using Markov-chain Monte Carlo. The results suggest a slight WTPWTA disparity and WTA being more fuzzy as WTP. The model is fragile to single respondents with lexicographic preferences, i.e. not willing to accept any trade-offs between health and money.

Keywords: willingness-to-pay/accept; fuzzy set; membership function; preference elicitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 D71 J17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 7 pages
Date: 2016-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-hea and nep-net
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