Analysis and Insights from a Dynamical Model of Nuclear Plant Safety Risk

Stephen M. Hess, Alfonso M. Albano () and John P. Gaertner
Additional contact information
Stephen M. Hess: Sensortex, Inc.
Alfonso M. Albano: School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University
John P. Gaertner: Electric Power Research Institute

No 14-2005, Working Papers from Singapore Management University, School of Economics

Abstract: In this paper, we expand upon previously reported results of a dynamical systems model for the impact of plant processes and programmatic performance on nuclear plant safety risk. We utilize both analytical techniques and numerical simulations typical of the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems to obtain insights important for effective risk management. This includes use of bifurcation diagrams to show that period doubling bifurcations and regions of chaotic dynamics can occur. We also investigate the impact of risk mitigating functions (equipment reliability and loss prevention) on plant safety risk and demonstrate that these functions are capable of improving risk to levels that are better than those that are represented in a traditional risk assessment. Next, we analyze the system response to the presence of external noise and obtain some conclusions with respect to the allocation of resources to ensure that safety is maintained at optimal levels. In particular, we demonstrate that the model supports the importance of management and regulator attention to plants that have demonstrated poor performance by providing an external stimulus to obtain desired improvements. Equally important, the model suggests that excessive intervention, by either plant management or regulatory authorities, can have a deleterious impact on safety for plants that are operating with very effective programs and processes. Finally, we propose a modification to the model that accounts for the impact of plant risk culture on process performance and plant safety risk. We then use numerical simulations to demonstrate the important safety benefits of a strong risk culture.

Keywords: Nonlinear Dynamical Systems; Process Model; Risk Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2005-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

Downloads: (external link)
https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/5616/risk_model.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Server closed connection without sending any data back

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:siu:wpaper:14-2005

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Singapore Management University, School of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by QL THor ().