Long-term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 2014-2038

Don Drummond and Evan Capeluck ()

No 2015-08, CSLS Research Reports from Centre for the Study of Living Standards

Abstract: This report presents long-term fiscal and economic projections for Canada, the provinces and the territories for the 2014-2038 period, and discusses their implications for budgetary balance at the provincial/territorial level. In particular, it examines whether economic growth and hence revenue growth (assuming no major changes in tax policy) will be sufficient to fund likely spending pressures. Economic growth is generally projected to be slower over the next 24 years than since 2000. As a result, all, or almost all, provinces and territories, depending upon the economic assumptions, will not be able to meet the test of balancing revenue growth with growth in public spending. Hence, without tax rate increases or action to curtail spending growth, there will be pressure for progressively larger deficits.

Keywords: Projection; Ageing; Fiscal Sustainability; Demographics; Canada; Budget; Provinces; Revenue Growth; Taxes; Economic Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E27 E37 E47 E60 E62 E66 H20 H50 H51 H60 H61 H62 H68 H70 H71 H72 J10 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-lab, nep-mac and nep-pbe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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