Structural Analysis and Forecast of Nigerian Monthly Inflation Movement between 1996 and 2022

Job Nmadu (), Ezekiel Yisa (), Usman Mohammed (), Halima Sallawu (), Yebosoko Nmadu () and Sokoyami Nmadu ()
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Job Nmadu: Fed. University of Tech., Minna, Nigeria
Ezekiel Yisa: Fed. University of Tech., Minna, Nigeria
Usman Mohammed: Fed. University of Tech., Minna, Nigeria
Halima Sallawu: Fed. University of Tech., Minna, Nigeria
Yebosoko Nmadu: Nigeria Defence Academy, Kaduna, Nigeria
Sokoyami Nmadu: Ajayi Crowther University, Oyo, Nigeria

RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2024 from Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies

Abstract: Forecasting leads to adequate and comprehensive planning for sustainable development. A number of procedures are used to estimate, predict and forecast data, but not all are able to capture the historical path of the data generating process adequately. In view of this, the timeseries characteristics, structural changes and trend of inflation in Nigeria (1996-2022) were analyzed using ARMA, Holt-Winters, spline and other associated models. The results indicated that inflation in Nigeria has remained above acceptable limits in a cyclical trend during the period under study and that there is every possibility that Nigerian inflation would remain above 10% for some time to come. There were six shocks, the major stressors being food inflation, oil and gas prices and wages adjustment. For Nigeria to achieve a stable inflation rate regime of acceptable limits, a robust economic management and intelligence team using a global innovation platform as well as evidenced-based policies which ensure that Nigeria does not swerve away from the path to recovery should be established in consultation with the fiscal, monetary, and research authorities.

Keywords: b-splines; Holt-Winters smoothing; Nigerian inflation; structural breaks; cyclical trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2022-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mfd and nep-mon
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Published in Proceedings of the 29th International RAIS Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities, August 14-15, 2022, pages 16-26

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