Does Weather Matter?

Jian Hu ()

No 809, Departmental Working Papers from Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics

Abstract: We use semi-parametric bin tests, regression analyses and copula modeling techniques to identify the relationship between temperature and stock market returns. After examining 25 international stock markets, we find that the negative correlation is statistically significant in individual countries, i.e. the higher is the temperature, the lower the stock returns. However, we fail to find joint significance of temperature effects across markets after correcting for market comovement by seemingly unrelated regression. We also find negative temperature effects on returns are robust to different measures of daily temperature. Both constant-dependence and time-varying-dependence conditional copula models are employed to analyze the general dependence between temperature and stock market returns. The copula results show that the negative relation remains after controlling for autocorrelations, GARCH effects and non-normality and the dependence between temperature and stock market returns is relatively stable over time.

Keywords: Stock market returns; Temperature; Copula. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G11 G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ftp1.economics.smu.edu/WorkingPapers/2008/Hu/Hu-2008-11-2.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:smu:ecowpa:0809

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Departmental Working Papers from Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics Department of Economics, P.O. Box 750496, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275-0496.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ömer Özak ().