Has the American Output Growth Path Experienced a Permanent Change?

Thomas Lustenberger

No 2018-14, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank

Abstract: In this paper, I derive and apply three univariate methods and one bi-variate method to estimate permanent and transitory components of the American output growth path during the 1790 to 2017 period. The results show that statistical tests give little support to the hypothesis of significant permanent growth rate changes (univariate methods). The "special century" (1870-1970, as defined by Gordon (2016)) exhibited more volatile permanent shifts in the output level compared to recent decades (bivariate method).

Keywords: Output growth; business cycle; permanent and transitory components (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mac
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