An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw

Sebastián Cea (), Guillermo Durán (), Mario Guajardo, Denis Sauré (), Joaquín Siebert () and Gonzalo Zamorano ()
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Sebastián Cea: University of Chile
Guillermo Durán: University of Buenos Aires
Denis Sauré: University of Chile
Joaquín Siebert: University of Chile
Gonzalo Zamorano: University of Chile

Annals of Operations Research, 2020, vol. 286, issue 1, No 6, 119-146

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes the procedure used by FIFA up until 2018 to rank national football teams and define by random draw the groups for the initial phase of the World Cup finals. A predictive model is calibrated to form a reference ranking to evaluate the performance of a series of simple changes to that procedure. These proposed modifications are guided by a qualitative and statistical analysis of the FIFA ranking. We then analyze the use of this ranking to determine the groups for the World Cup finals. After enumerating a series of deficiencies in the group assignments for the 2014 World Cup, a mixed integer linear programming model is developed and used to balance the difficulty levels of the groups.

Keywords: OR in sports; Analytics; Ranking; FIFA World Cup; Football (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03261-8

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