The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados

Terence D. Agbeyegbe ()
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Terence D. Agbeyegbe: Hunter College and The Graduate Center

Annals of Data Science, 2023, vol. 10, issue 3, No 10, 787-804

Abstract: Abstract This article investigates the effect of output volatility on output growth in Barbados, a small island developing state located in the Caribbean, based on data from 1976 through 2018. I conduct the analysis using the Stochastic Volatility in Mean model with time-varying parameters. The evidence suggests that output growth volatility, measured by stochastic volatility, negatively links with output growth at the aggregate level. I also examine disaggregate output data in order to understand this link better. The sectoral evidence suggests a positive link for services, a negative link for manufacturing, and a weak link for agriculture and the industrial sectors.

Keywords: Developing countries; Barbados; Output volatility; TVP-SVM; Bayesian estimation; Simulation; MSC 62; MSC 65; MSC 91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s40745-021-00331-2

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