Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Indices Volatility: Long-Memory Persistence, Structural Breaks, or Both?

Abdinardo Moreira Barreto Oliveira (), Anandadeep Mandal () and Gabriel J. Power ()
Additional contact information
Abdinardo Moreira Barreto Oliveira: Federal University of Technology of Paraná
Anandadeep Mandal: University of Birmingham
Gabriel J. Power: Université Laval

Annals of Data Science, 2024, vol. 11, issue 2, No 9, 619-646

Abstract: Abstract The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has increased volatility in financial markets, motivating researchers to investigate its impact. Some use the GARCH family of models to focus on long-memory persistence, while others use Markov chain models to better identify structural breaks and regimes. However, no study has addressed the occurrence of these two phenomena in a unified framework. Since both are important features of the data, to ignore one or the other could lead to poorly specified models. The outcome would be incorrect risk measurement, with implications for risk management, Value at risk, portfolio decisions, forecasting, and option pricing. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature. We assemble an international dataset for 16 stock market indices in three continents over the period from August 1, 2019 to February 18, 2022, totalling 669 business days. Using R, we estimate 80 GARCH family models, 16 pure Markov-Switching models, and 900 combined GARCH/ Markov-Switching models using daily stock market log-returns. We allow for two volatility regimes (low and high). We also measure and incorporate News Impact Curves, which show how past shocks affect contemporaneous volatility. Our main finding, across estimated models, is that COVID-19 affected both long-memory persistence and volatility regimes in most markets. To describe the specific impact in each market, we report News Impact Curves. Lastly, the first wave of COVID-19 had a much greater impact on volatility than did subsequent waves linked to the emergence of new variants.

Keywords: COVID-19; Statistical models; Volatility; Stock indices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40745-022-00446-0 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:11:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s40745-022-00446-0

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... gement/journal/40745

DOI: 10.1007/s40745-022-00446-0

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of Data Science is currently edited by Yong Shi

More articles in Annals of Data Science from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().