Hospital preparedness during epidemics using simulation: the case of COVID-19

Daniel Garcia-Vicuña, Laida Esparza and Fermin Mallor ()
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Daniel Garcia-Vicuña: Public University of Navarre
Laida Esparza: Hospital Compound of Navarre
Fermin Mallor: Public University of Navarre

Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2022, vol. 30, issue 1, No 8, 213-249

Abstract: Abstract This paper presents a discrete event simulation model to support decision-making for the short-term planning of hospital resource needs, especially Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds, to cope with outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Given its purpose as a short-term forecasting tool, the simulation model requires an accurate representation of the current system state and high fidelity in mimicking the system dynamics from that state. The two main components of the simulation model are the stochastic modeling of patient admission and patient flow processes. The patient arrival process is modelled using a Gompertz growth model, which enables the representation of the exponential growth caused by the initial spread of the virus, followed by a period of maximum arrival rate and then a decreasing phase until the wave subsides. We conducted an empirical study concluding that the Gompertz model provides a better fit to pandemic-related data (positive cases and hospitalization numbers) and has superior prediction capacity than other sigmoid models based on Richards, Logistic, and Stannard functions. Patient flow modelling considers different pathways and dynamic length of stay estimation in several healthcare stages using patient-level data. We report on the application of the simulation model in two Autonomous Regions of Spain (Navarre and La Rioja) during the two COVID-19 waves experienced in 2020. The simulation model was employed on a daily basis to inform the regional logistic health care planning team, who programmed the ward and ICU beds based on the resulting predictions.

Keywords: Discrete event simulation model; COVID-19; Bed occupancy; Hospital resources planning; Gompertz growth model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10100-021-00779-w

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