Modelling pandemic behavior with a network-SIRD approach

Mira Baude () and Alf Kimms ()
Additional contact information
Mira Baude: University of Duisburg-Essen
Alf Kimms: University of Duisburg-Essen

Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2024, vol. 32, issue 2, No 14, 541 pages

Abstract: Abstract Due to the Corona pandemic, measures to control the spread of the virus are much debated in society. Different countries pursued different policy approaches to reduce the outbreak of the pandemic. This paper deals with the optimal selection of measures to control the outbreak of a pandemic. The focus is on the beginning of a pandemic, when no vaccines or medical supplies are available. To illustrate the different approaches taken by governments, we demonstrate some practical data. We formulate a mathematical program to minimize the economic damage caused by measures while simultaneously considering the humanitarian damage caused by infections. To consider the progress of the pandemic, our model is based on epidemiological multi-group-SIRD model. This model is looking at a bunch of districts and their contact rates with each other. In each district, the population is divided into subgroups. The measures restrict contacts between these subgroups and affect the pandemic process. In addition to the consideration of minimizing costs, a limited mortality rate is also considered. To illustrate the model, a small case study inspired by cities in Germany is presented.

Keywords: Epidemic model; Epidemic control; COVID-19; SIRD model; Optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10100-023-00894-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:32:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10100-023-00894-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... search/journal/10100

DOI: 10.1007/s10100-023-00894-w

Access Statistics for this article

Central European Journal of Operations Research is currently edited by Ulrike Leopold-Wildburger

More articles in Central European Journal of Operations Research from Springer, Slovak Society for Operations Research, Hungarian Operational Research Society, Czech Society for Operations Research, Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR), Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research, Croatian Operational Research Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().