Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

James McFarland (), Yuyu Zhou, Leon Clarke, Patrick Sullivan, Jesse Colman, Wendy Jaglom, Michelle Colley, Pralit Patel, Jiyon Eom, Son Kim, G. Kyle, Peter Schultz, Boddu Venkatesh, Juanita Haydel, Charlotte Mack and Jared Creason

Climatic Change, 2015, vol. 131, issue 1, 125 pages

Abstract: The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8

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