Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?

Elmar Kriegler (), Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Cian, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Massimo Tavoni () and Ottmar Edenhofer
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Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Ioanna Mouratiadou: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Robert J. Brecha: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Katherine Calvin: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland
Enrica Cian: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranen Center on Climate Change (CMCC)
Jae Edmonds: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland
Kejun Jiang: Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission

Climatic Change, 2016, vol. 136, issue 1, No 2, 7-22

Abstract: Abstract We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1668-3

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