Temperature, maize yield, and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa

Tackseung Jun ()
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Tackseung Jun: Kyung Hee University

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 142, issue 1, No 14, 183-197

Abstract: Abstract Civil conflicts have swept through many parts of sub-Saharan Africa in the past half century. Recently, scholars from backgrounds as diver as climate science, economics, political science, and anthropology have explored the effects of climate change on these civil conflicts, with mixed results. Our empirical results confirm effects of temperature on the incidence of civil conflict. The key findings are as follows: (i) between 1970 and 2012 in sub-Saharan Africa, a high temperature during maize growing season reduced the crop’s yield, which in turn increased the incidence of civil conflict and (ii) future expected warming is expected to increase civil conflict incidence by 33% in the period 2031–2050, and by 100% in the period 2081–3010, compared to levels between 1981 and 2000. These results highlight the importance of sufficient food supplies and adaptation to increased climate warming to facilitate peace in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: Season Temperature; Maize Yield; Baseline Probability; Civil Conflict; Grow Season Temperature (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1941-0

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